China has been running an excellent PR campaign the past few years and now it seems to be paying off. Australia has recently begun to seperate its policy on China from that of the U.S.
"in general terms it was made clear that in the unlikely event of a conflict over Taiwan, the US doesn't automatically expect military support from Australia."
At this point I am not so sure the U.S government is ready to tussle over Taiwan. The government rhetoric has been greatly toned down over the past few years. In October of 2004, Colin Powell said
"There is only one China. Taiwan is not independent. It does not enjoy sovereignty as a nation, and that remains our policy, our firm policy."
If I were in Taiwan I would not hold my breath for U.S support. They need to go nuclear and fast. If we do nothing while China takes Taiwan by force then we can kiss all of our Asian influence goodbye. (South Korea, and bases in the "Stans")
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I agree that Taiwan should not automatically expect US support. That being said, the US can not afford to lose Taiwan as an ally. They really hold the key to the US exercising influence in the Pacific. Most important is the shipping lanes in the S. China Sea. However, each day that goes by sees the US more tied up in the Middle East and more entangled in commerce with China. At some point, the pendulum will begin to swing the other way. We will probably forgo Taiwan for some agreement that will allow us to maintain a presences in the S. China Sea.
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